it's oscar night...

here are my oscar predictions for the big six:

best picture - lord of the rings
although i actually think lost in translation and mystic river are slightly better movies, i'm along with the thinking that the academy will reward peter jackson and co. for the trilogy as a whole. i thought that 'fellowship of the ring’ should have won back in 2002, but i think voters were just waiting until this year when the saga was complete since they knew the sequels would be coming out in consecutive years.
sleeper - lost in translation (maybe they'll fall in love with the 'it' movie of the year)

director - peter jackson
see above.
sleeper - sofia coppola

actor - bill murray
this is where an upset could happen. all along, most observers believed that murray and sean penn would fight it out. then out of nowhere, johnny depp wins the sag award, where you’re voted by your own peers. yeah, i thought that he was great and a scene-stealer, but there’s no way i think it was ‘oscar-worthy’. anyway, both performances by murray and penn were incredible, so i think it’s a toss-up. i’d like to see murray win for his subtle, understated humour, yet extremely compelling character.
sleeper - johnny depp (damn drag queens!)

actress - charlize theron
does anyone actually think any of the other girls have a chance?! she's won every single trophy during the awards season. next.
sleeper - no one

supporting actor - tim robbins
i’ve only seen two of the actors in this category, so i’m going on little. still, tim robbins was mesmerizing. he made his character into someone that you could despise and sympathize with at the same time.
sleeper - ken watanabe (maybe they’ll pick a foreigner!)

supporting actress - renee zelleweger
again, i’ve only seen half of the performances in this category. i actually don’t think zelleweger was that great. i think she stood out only because she was funny and the rest of the movie was pretty friggin’ boring. i also think they’re gonna give it to her ‘cause she should have won last year. the academy tends to do that—they realize they made a mistake the year before and then give the a make-up one for a lesser role the year after (e.g. russell crowe, nicole kidman).
sleeper - holly hunter (she was great as the freaked-out mom who had to watch her 13 year-old daughter mess up her life.)

other picks:
original screenplay – lost in translation
adapted screenplay – mystic river
animated feature – finding nemo
documentary – the fog of war
foreign film – the barbarian invasions (go canada!)